Why Fertility Matters — More Than Ever
The future of humanity depends on whether we bring new life into the world, not just on how we get to live longer.
“The destiny of nations depends on how they nourish themselves.”
— Jean Anthelme Brillat-Savarin
The Fertility Freefall
In 1960, the average woman worldwide had an average of five children. Today, that number has collapsed to 2.3 and is falling fast [1]. In over 70% of countries, fertility is already below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 — the level necessary to sustain a stable population [2].
The chart I shared previously — a shocking but straightforward visualization — captures this collapse in motion.
Fertility decline is no longer confined to wealthy nations. India, long seen as the demographic counterweight to China, has dipped below replacement levels in several states [3]. China itself is now shrinking, with its population declining by over two million last year — the sharpest decline since the Great Chinese Famine [4]. Even Latin America, once buoyed by large families, is converging with the global trend [2].
This touches the heart of civilizational continuity. Without children, there is no future workforce, no taxpayers, no innovators, no soldiers, no artists, no builders. A world without babies is a world that cannot renew itself.
We are entering an era of demographic freefall. And the consequences will define everything from economic vitality to national security.
Why Fertility Matters — More Than Ever
1. Civilizational Continuity
Civilizations collapse when they cannot reproduce themselves. The Roman Empire famously struggled with declining birthrates among its elite, relying increasingly on mercenaries to defend its borders [5]. More recently, Japan’s demographic implosion has turned the world’s third-largest economy into a cautionary tale of stagnation, with more adult diapers sold annually than baby diapers [6].
Without replenishment, societies don’t just shrink. They age, creating brittle structures unable to adapt or sustain.
2. The Economic Engine
Growth requires workers. Innovation requires youth. Entrepreneurship thrives on the daring energy of those in their 20s and 30s. As the International Monetary Fund notes, aging populations lead to “secular stagnation,” dragging down productivity and straining public finances [7].
By 2050, the dependency ratio — the number of retirees supported by each worker — is expected to double in countries ranging from South Korea to Italy [8]. That means fewer people producing goods, paying taxes, and funding pensions, while more people require healthcare and social services.
Without new life, the very engine of capitalism seizes up.
3. The Social Fabric
Declining fertility isn’t just about economics; it’s about community. Smaller families mean fewer siblings, cousins, and extended networks. Loneliness rises. Intergenerational bonds fray. In countries like South Korea, where fertility has fallen to a record-low 0.7 births per woman, entire schools are closing due to a lack of students [9].
4. Strategic Stability
Fertility is a matter of national security. Nations with shrinking populations lose geopolitical weight. Russia’s declining population underpins its increasingly desperate geopolitical gambits [10]. China’s looming demographic collapse threatens its long-term ambition to rival the U.S. as a global hegemon [4]. Meanwhile, Africa, projected to account for 40% of the world’s population by 2100, is set to become the center of global labor, culture, and perhaps conflict [11].
History teaches us that power follows population. Fertility may be perceived as a private matter, but it is also profoundly public.
5. Human Aspiration
Finally, fertility matters because life itself matters. Beyond GDP charts and pension funds, reproduction is the most profound human aspiration — to create, to nurture, to continue the story of our species. When people give up on family, they are also giving up on the belief that tomorrow is worth building.
As the philosopher Hannah Arendt wrote, “The miracle that saves the world … is the fact of birth” [12].
The Fertility Renaissance
If fertility collapse is the challenge, then a fertility renaissance must be the response. This is a frontier of science, technology, culture, and policy.
Science
The fertility industry is still in its infancy. Over 13 million babies have been born from IVF globally [13]. But advances are accelerating: egg freezing, embryo screening, artificial wombs. Research into ovarian rejuvenation and genetic therapies could extend reproductive lifespans dramatically. Just as antibiotics and vaccines defined the 20th century, the 21st may be defined by reproductive technologies.
Technology
AI is entering fertility. AI can help aspiring parents navigate IVF, track cycles, and make more informed medical decisions. Wearables and biometric sensors can help make fertility tracking precise and personalized. Where once parenthood was shaped by biology alone, it will increasingly be enabled by technology at every stage.
Policy
Governments are beginning to stir. Hungary, Singapore, and Israel have deployed aggressive pro-natalist policies [2]. But subsidies alone rarely move the needle. What’s needed is a full-spectrum approach: affordable housing, flexible work, childcare infrastructure, and cultural shifts that honor parenthood as a noble pursuit, not a burden.
Culture
Perhaps the most complex and most essential shift is reframing family. In a culture that celebrates individual consumption, the family has been cast as a sacrifice. We must flip that script. In the post-World War II baby boom, starting a family was an act of optimism. We need to rekindle that sense of audacity now.
Addressing the Counterarguments
Some argue that declining fertility is good for the planet — that fewer people mean less carbon, less consumption. But this is shortsighted. Innovation, not depopulation, is the path to sustainability [14]. A shrinking humanity is not an environmental solution but a civilizational suicide note. Others claim technology can substitute for people. But machines cannot dream. They cannot build communities. A world without children is not just smaller — it’s emptier.
Just as climate became the defining cause of the past two decades, fertility must become one of the defining causes of the next.
We need startups building pioneering solutions that deliver 10x the performance of current IVF methods. We need investors backing research as boldly as they fund AI. We need policymakers who view the family as a critical pillar of society. And we need a cultural movement that says: the future is not something to fear — it is something to build, literally, through new life.
A Final Note
Fertility is about whether humanity believes it has a future, not just about babies. In a century defined by existential risks and technological upheaval, nothing is more radical, more urgent, and more hopeful than choosing to bring new life into the world and building the systems to make that choice easier for all.
The destiny of civilizations does not just depend on weapons, markets, or machines. It depends on whether it reproduces.
With belief,
Yon
References
World Bank. Fertility rate, total (births per woman). (2023). Link
United Nations Population Division. World Fertility Highlights. Link
Indian Ministry of Health. National Family Health Survey-5. (2021). Link
National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Population Data 2024. Link
Harper, K. The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire. Princeton University Press, 2017. Link
The Guardian. Sign of the times in Japan as nappy company switches production to adult nappies. (2024). Link
IMF. The Macroeconomic Effects of Aging. (2020). Link
OECD. Dependency Ratios in Aging Societies. (2022). Link
Statistics Korea. Birth Statistics 2024. Link
Eberstadt, N. Russia’s Demographic Crisis. American Enterprise Institute (2023). Link
UN DESA. World Population Prospects 2022. Link
Arendt, H. The Human Condition. University of Chicago Press, 1958. Link
More Than 13 Million Babies Have Been Born From IVF. Parents.com Link
Lee, R. & Mason, A. Fertility, Human Capital, and Development. NBER (2010). Link
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